First, Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities are of great concern for Saudi Arabia as the Saudis’ armed forces are far from being able to challenge Iran.

Second, the situation in Iraq is a threat to Saudi Arabia stability as unstable, not unified and still under U.S. occupation.

Third, the current fighting on the Yemeni border with the Shia Houthis separatists is a challenge to Saudi Arabia national security. Furthermore, the President of Yemen warned that if calls for separation continue a new civil war could take place, which would result, according to him, not just be a simple division between the north and the south but would be a division between villages and states. Moreover, early 2009, Al Qaeda announced the merger of its Saudi and Yemeni branches in Yemen, raising the alarm of counterterrorist agencies, fearing that Yemen may become a terrorist safe haven, adding even more pressure on Saudi Arabia.

Four, Saudi Arabia is facing continuing instability in the Red Sea Area, such as the radical Sudan and the failed state of Somalia.

Finally, Saudi Arabia depends on the United States for its security and is an important source of trade and technology. However, some Muslims countries have strong views on this close cooperation, given the United States policies in the Middle East, from Israel to Iraq, which impede the kingdom wide range of action in the region.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia needs to play a crucial role in the region to achieve its number one priority: national security, which would ensure the legitimacy of the regime — its number two priority — while preserving its position as world leading exporter of petroleum — the Kingdom’s third priority.

1. Chubin S. “Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions” Carnegie Endowment, Washington DC, 2006, P.16
2. Ibid
3. Ibid
4. Byman, D, Iran’s Security Policy in the Post Revolutionary Era, Rand Corp., Santa Monica, 2001, p.8
5. (Chubin, 2006, p.113)
6. James M. Lindsay, Ray Takeyh “After Iran Gets the Bomb” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, p.36-38
7. (James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, 2010, p.38)

In regards to her economy, Turkey is the world’s seventeenth largest economy, Europe’s sixth largest economy², and from 2005 to 2008 she doubled her trade exchange with her eight nearest geographical neighbors, which encompasses countries such as Syria, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Georgia³. Turkey is also growing as an energetic corridor, with the Baku-Ceyhan gas pipeline and the oil pipelines from Iraq and Iran, in addition to becoming an exporter of water to other regional states, such as Libya⁴. Moreover, Turkish tourism is booming and the number of Arab and Persian tourists to Turkey has multiplied over the past few years, while Arab television channel are buying in large number Turkish television series, which are very popular among Arab viewers⁵.

In regards to military capabilities, as commonly known Turkey has the second largest army in NATO⁶. However, what is less known is Turkey current military upgrade, such as already having the second largest inventory of F-16 fighters in the world and the recent acquisition of modern frigates and submarines to update its Navy traditionally viewed as poor⁷. Moreover, Turkey has been developing domestic military building capabilities that make her independent from foreign suppliers⁸, such as the United States or Israel.

Besides, Turkey started playing an instrumental role in the Israel-Palestinian conflict, by mediating direct talks between Syria and Israel, diffusing tensions between Lebanon and Israel and holding talks with Saudi-Arabia on the matter.

Turkish military recent upgrade trend, combined with strong economic ties to the Middle East region and her active participation in the Israel-Palestinian conflict clearly indicate a desire to become a regional hegemon.

Sources
1. Chubin S. “Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions” Carnegie Endowment, Washington DC, 2006, P.15
2. Ahmet Davutoglu “Turkish Foreign Policy and the EU in 2010” Turkish Policy Quarterly, Fall 2009, p.15
3. Yigal Schleifer “The Ottoman Revival” Foreign Policy May – June 2009
4. Edward J. Erickson “Turkey as Regional Hegemon – 2014: Strategic Implications for the United States” Turkish Studies, Vol.5, No.3 Autumn 2004, p.37
5. Sahin Alpay “Turkey’s EU membership and the Muslim world” Turkish Weekly 5 March 2007 24
6. (Erickson , 2004, p.34)
7.Ibid
8.Ibid

A recent report by Yemeni human rights organizations presented to the United Nations Committee Against Torture reveals serious human rights violations by the Yemeni National Security Agency against Yemeni jurists and human rights activists. Moreover, Amnesty International recently reported police brutality and torture of detainees held in connection with politically motivated acts or protests. Reported methods of torture included beating with sticks, punching, kicking, prolonged suspension by the wrists or ankles, burning with cigarettes, being stripped naked, denial of food and prompt access to medical help, and threats of sexual abuse. The same report also indicates sentences of flogging being frequently carried out after being handed down by the courts for sexual abuses and alcohol offences. In addition, several protesters were reported to be killed as a result of excessive use of force by the security forces during peaceful protests. However, no independent investigations have been carried out.

Furthermore, a recent Human Rights Watch report includes allegations of serious violations of the laws of war by governmental and Huthis forces, including the use of children under 18 in combat, use of anti-personal landmines in civilian areas, and taking civilians hostage. Additionally, the same report reveals allegation of aerial bombing and artillery shelling on populated villages by governmental forces.

Gender-specific issues:

Women in Yemen face violence and discrimination on a regular basis. For instance, women are not free to marry who they want and some children as young as eight are forced to marry. Furthermore, once married, women must obey their husbands and even obtain permission to leave the house. In regards to the law, women’s testimony in court is valued only as half as that of men. Women are also denied equal treatment in terms of inheritance, if not completely denied. Moreover, the courts treat men leniently with regards to honor killings.

Amnesty International reports that violence against women is common in Yemen, perpetrated by the state, the community and the family, and no specific law protects women from domestic violence. Meanwhile, social norms allow men to hit their wives, daughters and sisters. Moreover, visible proof of domestic violence usually needs to be shown before the authorities, but women are often blamed for causing it.

The Refugee Situation:

As of mid-November 2009, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that 175,000 people have been displaced by the five-year conflict between the authorities and the Huthis tribe that escalated in August 2009. Elderly people, single mothers and children represent the majority of the new arrivals in refugee camps. The latest sudden influx of refugees due to the intensification of the combat is adding more pressure on an already dire situation, and causing overcrowding in camps.

Meanwhile, as of mid-November 2009, the UNCHR is anticipating a continuous influx of internally displaced persons in Yemen.

Additionally, Yemen hosts over 40,000 Somali refugees who survived the hazardous crossing of the Gulf of Aden, where many have drowned or been killed by human traffickers. Moreover, according to a recent report of Amnesty International, some 1,300 asylum-seekers were returned involuntarily to their countries.

According to the UN’s Office of Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan spends US$2.5 BILLION each year on bribery and corruption. That amounts to approximately 23% of Afghanistan’s GDP. That’s right — nearly one quarter of the money spent in Afghanistan goes to “greasing the wheels” and paying off corrupt officials. As has been reported previously, some of these government officials are incredibly high up, including President Karzai’s own brother.

This makes bribery and corruption the second largest portion of the Afghani economy, after the opium poppy cash crop. Nearly US$3 billion (according to the UN, US$2.8 billion) are spent each year in the opium poppy industry.

It is extremely sad to think that nearly 50% of the Afghani economy is either related to the opium trade or bribery/corruption. How can a country effectively run itself when so much money is going into such illicit sectors? Government officials who are personally enriching themselves and failing to provide services simply alienate the general public and create a spiral where people stop paying into the system, thus forcing more officials to resort to bribery. It also hinders needed capital from creating a real economy with opportunities so that people won’t need to turn to opium in order to make ends meet.

How can this cycle be broken so that the Afghani population can be finally live in peace and prosperity?

See Dan Logue’s other posts on the situation in Afghanistan.

“The treatment of Muslims in American airports”

The United States of America has adopted stricter security measures in its airports and border passageways, following the uncovering of the failed attempt to detonate a civilian plane over Detroit by a Nigerian young man who was said to have received training in an Al-Qa’idah camp in Yemen. These measures are undoubtedly a sovereign American decision but they are targeting particularly Arab and Muslim citizens, which means that the accusations of “terrorism” have now become limited to those people solely, in a clear reflection of segregation. The American administration drew up a list of terrorist states featuring fourteen countries, thirteen of which are Muslim countries and include Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Algeria, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, Syria, Pakistan, Nigeria, Somalia, Iraq and Lebanon.

As for the only non-Arab and non-Muslim country, it was Cuba. The targeting of Arabs and Muslims with thorough searches at American airports is not new. However, the tightening of these measures following the failed detonation attempt will entail further humiliation, investigations, body searches and computer and cell-phone checking, which will render trips to America an unbearable nightmare. Moreover, the fact that an Arab or Muslim citizen holds European nationality does not mean anything, and does not spare the latter from going through the same measures if coming from the states featured on the American lists, whose citizens are believed to be more prone to carry out terrorist attacks.

Therefore, Britons and French [people] of Muslim origins are often forced to get entry visas into the United States in a [form of] clear segregation in comparison with their compatriots of white European origins. The paradox, however, is that this racist segregation is also implemented on Americans of Arab or Islamic origins, since immigration and customs officers often decorate their boarding passes with (xxxx) written in red in order to subject them to additional searching and investigation. Many stories are being related by those traveling to the United States, talking about the harsh treatment they are receiving, [such as] being ousted from the plane, or prevented from boarding it to begin with if the travele’s name is featured on the list of banned or monitored [persons] (which includes around one million names).

In this context, Libya’s current envoy to the United Nations, and former foreign minister, Mr. Abdelrahman Shalgam, was subjected to humiliating treatment at New York airport before boarding the plane, which prompted his government to protest and decide to prevent the entry of Americans into its territories. However, the apology issued by the American administration and its secretary of state for this shameful action helped contain the crisis, even if temporarily. However, the most painful example is that in which the American government sent back a French national of Algerian origins from the airport of the capital, Washington, after he was searched in a humiliating way, just because he was not white and his eyes were not blue.

The Algerian government was almost the only one to protest the American decision to subject its citizens to additional security monitoring in airports, believing it was unjustifiable discrimination… We had hoped to see all the other Arab and Islamic states on the American terrorism lists protesting in a collective way and agreeing to adopt similar measures when dealing with the American nationals who reach their airports, by lengthily interrogating them, fiercely searching them and arresting them for long hours, seeing how the Americans are also perpetrating acts of terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are in favor of the protection of innocent American citizens, but also in favor of the protection of Arab and Muslim citizens from humiliation… at the hands of American investigators who despise all that is Arab and Muslim and treat us like convicted terrorists and not like businessmen, students, diplomats or journalists.

- the newly intensified Huthis rebellion in the north
- the increasingly violent secession movement in the south
- Al-Qaeda fighters from Saudi Arabia who found refuge in Yemen

1. Huthis rebellion

Shia Huthis rebels have been fighting the Yemeni army since 2004 in the north of the country over alleged governmental discrimination, aggression and marginalization. The conflict intensified in August 2009 when the Yemen’s army launched military operation against the Huthis. In addition, Saudi Arabia recently launched a military operation against the Huthis on its border with Yemen, as combats have increased in this region. Consequently, Huthis rebels have accused Saudi Arabia of supporting the central government campaign against them, an accusation that Riyadh denied.

Besides, the Yemeni government accuses Iran of supplying the Huthis insurgents to create a Shia arc around the Middle East; an accusation that Tehran and Huthis leader denied.

As a result of the on going fighting in the north of Yemen since 2004, aids groups think that at least 150,000 people have fled their homes and many have been wounded or killed during combats.

2. Secession movement in the south

Separatist movements in the south have gained momentum and have recently grown more violent. Since last April, south Yemen has been engulfed in violence. Separatist groups want to secede from the north on the ground of political marginalization by the central government and economic disparities between north and south.

3. Al Qaeda

Early last year, Nasser al Wuhayshi, Osama bin Laden’s former secretary, announced the merger of the Saudi and Yemeni branches of Al Qaeda, raising the alarm of counterterrorist agencies in the United States and elsewhere, which fear that Yemen may become a terrorist safe heaven. In July 2009, General David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander visited Yemen to push the government to implement aggressive actions against Al Qaeda. However, it appears that Al Qaeda remains of a third concerns for the Yemeni government given the threat posed by the Huthis rebellion and secession movements in the south.

Thirty years ago this Christmas Eve will be the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It’s interesting to think that the United States will succeed where the Soviets failed. Newsweek has an interesting article on avoiding making the same Soviet mistakes. Questions abound: How much has changed in Afghanistan in those 30 years? Is the US that much better of a military? — among many others. Personally, I feel that history will repeat itself, and will simply show that Afghans may fight amongst themselves, but will band together should an outsider intrude.

An old adage states, “Never fight a land war in Asia.” Never has this been more accurate. Afghanistan is a mysterious and complicated society where foreign militaries have consistently failed.

I agree that the U.S. military is easily the most successful, powerful and professional in history. That does not mean, however, that it will be capable of fixing every situation and being successful in every mission it undertakes. I would love nothing more to see the US succeed in Afghanistan, yet we can’t want it more than the Afghanis do. Top-down and outside-influenced democracy isn’t generally successful. Afghanis need to find their own way through political, economic and democratic development. Such an indigenous path makes it more likely that the final decision will stick.

The Soviets spent years trying to subdue the Afghanis and install a communist government. Eventually, they decided that it just wasn’t worth the time, money and effort. Will the U.S. break the Afghan curse or will we simply join the Soviets as yet another failed occupier?

I would like to be cautiously optimistic about this new campaign/escalation/surge, but deep down I just don’t believe history is on our side. As good as the intentions are of President Obama, he can’t make the U.S. military or the Afghani population make this work out. Only they can come to that conclusion and figure out a way to move forward. The U.S. military is undoubtedly one of the most (if not the most) successful military in history, yet it can’t fix a problem that isn’t solely a military one. Building social cohesion, creating infrastructure and institutions, and providing the stable, transparent government is not traditionally a military role. That’s not to say the military can’t help, just that personnel aren’t always prepared for the civil society role.

The problem for me and many others is just how the U.S. can justify its continued involvement in Afghanistan when there is rampant corruption and ties to the drug trade (see previous entries on this subject). According to Newsweek, the plot is even thicker since Afghan drug money is now tied to Dubai. It is very difficult, even in the best of circumstances, to defend and support a government that is one of the most corrupt in the world and is essentially a narcostate. I fear that very little good will actually come from this, with good money being poured after bad.

One other major issue is the publication of a possible withdrawal date. While it’s smart to have an exit strategy in the works, but announcing it out of the gate will most likely make things that much more complicated. It also doesn’t help to have an opposition party ready and willing to pounce on any decision Obama makes, good, bad or indifferent. Opposition is great when it’s healthy, but in some cases it has been disingenuous. Many of these politicians were unquestioning of “questionable” policies 7 or 8 years ago, and yet now the fine-tuning of said policies is a major issue.

Apparently, only time will tell whether or not Obama made the right decision or if history will simply repeat itself in Afghanistan.

June started off with a plane crash of an Airbus flying from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. President Obama went to Cairo to make a speech about Muslims and the U.S — some people thought it was pretty good while others had more measured reactions. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, widely reported to be sickly with cancer, tapped his youngest son Jong Un as successor, and his sushi chef said he’s just like his dad. Palau decided to accept a few of the Uighur Guantanamo detainees, and a few of them were also taken in by Bermuda. The Bermudans, however, weren’t so happy about how that happened. A little later, Iran had a Presidential election. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won under most likely fraudulent circumstances because more people voted in some towns than existed there. People protested, and Twittered, and protested some more, with violent repercussions. New York Times reporter David Rohde escaped after 7 months of being held captive by the Taliban in Afghanistan. In a seemingly pro-feminist move (but actually to the chagrin of many feminists), Nicolas Sarkozy supported a ban of the burqa in France. In Honduras, President Manuel Zelaya was ousted in a coup, and the U.S. military finally withdrew troops from Iraq to focus more instead on efforts to curb Taliban influence in Afghanistan.

In Urumqi, China, riots broke out between the majority Han Chinese and the minority Uighurs, and ethnic tension has remained heightened since, including recent claims that Uighurs are attacking Han Chinese with HIV infected needles. Two hotels were bombed in Jakarta, Indonesia. Hillary Clinton went to the Congo and brought attention to the use of rape and sexual violence as a tool of war (against men, too). Bill Clinton flew to North Korea and saved journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee, who had been captured in March and sentenced to 12 years of hard labor. It was a good week to be a Clinton.

Former President of the Philippines Corazon Aquino died. RIP, Cory. In Taiwan, there was a really big typhoon. Burmese democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial was held over the question of whether or not she violated the terms of her house arrest when a crazy American guy swam through a lake to visit her on a supposedly divine mission. She was found guilty. The American was freed (but remained crazy). Everybody found out that private contractor organization Blackwater (now Xe) was hired by the CIA to assassinate targets. Scotland allowed the one convicted Lockerbie bomber to return to Libya because he is dying of cancer. Everybody was really, really mad, especially because it was probably because of oil. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe came down with the H1N1 virus. The Darfur conflict was reported as coming to an end. Afghanistan held Presidential elections which showed incumbent Hamid Karzai leading, but like Iran, this was probably also fraud. Unlike Iran, they’re actually recounting votes and throwing out bad ones.

Hopefully, that’s refreshed your mind with a whirlwind of memories from the past three months. But here are a couple of things that perhaps you might have missed:

China reversed its one child policy, but only in Shanghai.

Cambodia set out to host a “Miss Landmine” pageant to challenge traditional beauty standards by promoting a pageant for landmine victims. The pageant was quickly banned.

A Ukranian polka band came up with this cover of Katy Perry’s “Hot n Cold.”

Some of the lawsuits over harmful pesticide effects made by Nicaraguan farmers for Dole Food Co. turned out to be fraudulent (involving faked sterility tests, among other indicators), effectively casting doubt on all the other farmers who might have actually been harmed by the pesticides.

China tried to use electroshock therapy to cure teens of Internet addiction. The practice was quickly banned.

Canada granted refugee status to a white man from South Africa who claimed he was being persecuted in his native country on the basis of his race.

An IT company in South Africa ran a test to see what could send data faster: South African Internet service or a carrier pigeon. The pigeon won.

Anything missing? Of course. Drop a comment to add in any other summer global affairs news that slipped through the cracks!